Global art trends with Christie’s Chairman

Latest data from the Knight Frank Wealth Report 2024 suggest that luxury investments – including art, classic cars, wine, jewellery, luxury handbags, etc. – represent an average 20% of ultra-high-net-worth individuals’ (UHNWI) wealth. Motivations to own collectibles are as diverse and individual as the collectors themselves: joy of ownership, investment, status, community belonging or intellectual interest are the top five motivations to collect investments of passion. Collectibles are often illiquid and follow trends of their own, thereby providing precious sources of diversification to the rest of investment portfolios. Yet they come with their own risks and financial rewards. After 2022 recorded a string of record-breaking sales in major auction houses, 2023 and 2024 revealed a more differentiated picture. We have the privilege of sharing an interview conducted by Adriano Picinati di Torcello, Global Art & Finance Coordinator at Deloitte Luxembourg, with Guillaume Cerutti, President of the Pinault Collection and Chairman of the Board of Christie’s International.

How has 2024 panned out for collectibles in the various segments Christie’s offers? What were key highlights and notable trends?

In 2024, Christie’s achieved global sales of USD 5.7 billion, a 6% decline from 2023 but outperforming the total art market which is estimated to have contracted by 20%. Auction sales declined by 16% to USD 4.2 billion, while Private Sales grew by 41%, reaching USD 1.5 billion. This reflects a typical counter-cyclical trend, as Private Sales often perform better in challenging auction markets, underscoring clients’ trust in targeted and more confidential transactions.

The Aga Khan Emerald · Sensational Cartier Emerald and Diamond Brooch, Magnificent Jewels Geneva 12 November 2024 CHF 7,765,000 · © 2024 Christie’s Images Ltd.

By category, 20th and 21st Century art continued to dominate, although there was a notable decline in ultra contemporary art. Luxury collectibles fell by 31% compared to 2023, but this is explained by an exceptional jewellery collection that came to market in 2023. Categories such as watches, handbags and wine remain strong. Highlights included René Magritte’s L’empire des lumières, which set a Surrealist auction record of USD 121.2 million, and robust private sales of masterpieces. 81% of bids in 2024 were placed online, underlining the importance and dynamism of our digital platforms.

81% of bids in 2024 were placed online, underlining the importance and dynamism of our digital platforms

To speak specifically about the global art market: How has it changed in recent years, and what do you see as the most significant trends (including risks and opportunities) shaping its future?

Over the past decade, two major shifts have redefined the art market: changing collector behaviour and digital transformation. A third of Christie’s clients are new each year, favouring 20th and 21st Century Art and luxury categories. New collectors are also more likely to collect across categories rather than specialising deeply in one area, which was more the case with collectors decades ago. Online sales now account for a significant proportion of transactions and are reshaping the way buyers engage with art. For Christie’s, adapting our offering, platforms and methods of engagement to these trends remains a key focus.

How do you see the art market trends differing between regions such as North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East?

The art market has become truly global, but with very different regional dynamics. The Americas dominate with 42% of global sales, demonstrating resilience on both the selling and buying sides. Europe and the Middle East contributed 32% of auction sales in 2024, with Paris experiencing 24% growth year-on-year. The number of buyers from the Middle East increased by 14% and we have decided to invest more in this region in the future as we see potential. Asia Pacific accounted for 26% of sales, and the region excelled in luxury, representing 42% of global luxury spending.

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How does this compare to the past? Have relative market shares shifted in this period of relative fragility for collectibles? Are we witnessing a shift towards Asia at the expense of Europe?

Over the past two decades, the United States has consistently accounted for 40-45% of the art market, while China has risen from 5% in 2004 to 20-30% in the past decade. Since 2019, the combined market share of London and Paris has declined from 24% to 21% of the global art market. At Christie’s, Impressionist, Modern and Contemporary art auctions in London and Paris now account for only about 25% of global annual sales, compared to 35-40% a decade ago. In Asia, Hong Kong remains the global hub, while Seoul, Shanghai, Tokyo and Singapore are growing, but remain more regional.

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Over the past two decades, the United States has consistently accounted for 40-45% of the art market, while China has risen from 5% in 2004 to 20-30% in the past decade

Another interesting recent development is the dynamism of the market for modern and contemporary Indian art. On 20 March, we achieved a record price in New York for a work by M.F. Husain, which sold at auction for an astonishing USD 14 million.

How is the interest in contemporary (including digital art) versus more traditional art segments expected to evolve in various global markets?

Over the last two decades, 20^th and 21^st Century Art has become the most sought-after category, while classical art (Old Masters, decorative arts, antiquities) has declined. However, there are important nuances: classical collections with distinguished provenance, like those of Givenchy or Rothschild in recent years, still attract high demand, while ultra-contemporary art has seen a pullback over the past two years. Ultimately, realistic pre-sale estimates, high-quality expertise, and effective marketing remain critical for all periods, ensuring works find the right market.

Jeff Beck: The Guitar Collection London 22 January 2025 GBP 1,068,500 · Gibson incorporated, Kalamazoo, Michigan, 1954 and later, a solid-body electric guitar, Les Paul model, known as ‘The Oxblood’ · © 2024 Christie’s Images Ltd.

Additionally, as interest in new technologies impresses on tastes and collecting habits of a newer collecting audience (particularly millennials and Gen Zs) we will see an evolution of categories like digital art. Beside some spectacular prices (Beeple in 2021, Refik Anadol in 2022), digital art is still a de minimis category for Christie’s in terms of value, but we believe in the medium and remain supportive of the market. Recently, our first auction sale entirely dedicated to artists using A.I. was a success.

20^th and 21^st Century Art has become the most sought-after category, while classical art has declined

What do you believe are the key factors driving the current prices in the global art market?

At the top end, rarity and provenance remain the main drivers of high prices. The outcome of a masterpiece such as Magritte’s L’empire des lumières illustrates the premium that iconic works command. Elsewhere, realistic estimates are crucial, particularly in the more selective market we are currently experiencing. Minimum guarantees, such as the one that supported the Magritte sale, are another way of providing certainty for sellers of major works; in most cases, we seek a third-party backer for major works who will take on the risk in return for receiving a fee or an incentive. We have continued to see these patterns in our opening sales of the 2025 season in both London and New York.

Mica: The collection of Mica Ertegun | René Magritte (1898-1967) · L’empire des lumières, Price realised USD 121,160,000 New York 19 November 2024 · © 2025 C. Herscovici / Artists Rights Society (ARS), New York; 2024 Christie’s Images Ltd.

Could you integrate an outlook on anticipated market trends for 2025 and the expected impact of potential U.S. tariffs?

The recent announcements on tariffs are creating uncertainty, even though artworks appear to be exempt. That said, we are used to adapting our business wherever changes are introduced. For example, we have done so post-Brexit (with the move of some sales to Paris).

Interestingly, our Asian art sales in New York in March achieved strong results.

Piet Mondrian (1872-1944) · Composition with Large Red Plane, Bluish Gray, Yellow, Black and Blue, Leonard & Louise Riggio: collected works New York May 2025 · USD 47,600,000 · © 2025 Christie’s Images Ltd.

In May, our 20^th and 21^st century art auctions in New York confirmed that the art market was not immune to the macro-environment, with clients adopting a cautious approach. However, works with fair pre-sale estimates and collections with great provenance, often supported by third-party backers, performed well. This was exemplified by the Leonard and Louise Riggio collection, which achieved a total of USD 272 million, surpassing its pre-sale estimates.

What role do you believe emerging technologies, such as virtual reality, blockchain and AI, will play in the future of art trading, authentication, valuation and provenance?

Emerging technologies like virtual reality, blockchain, and AI have transformed the art market in recent years. We have launched a dedicated financial vehicle, Christie’s Ventures, to invest in innovative startups to drive this transformation. For example, Proto’s hologram technology enables high-definition 3D reproduction of artworks, allowing Christie’s to promote them globally without the need for physical transportation. Christie’s annual Art+Tech symposium in New York highlights innovations such as these and fosters discussions about the role of technology in art – bringing together global leaders from academia, regulation, venture capital, technology and the art world.

Could you explain how these new technologies will or could impact authentication, valuation, and provenance issues? Additionally, what is your view on the recent evolution of cryptocurrencies? Does Christie’s accept cryptocurrency payments?

Christie’s was a pioneer in the application of blockchain to the art market, with the 2018 sale of the Estate of Barney A. Ebsworth, where all purchases were recorded via a digital registry administered by Artory. We have not witnessed a subsequent acceleration in this particular practice but we remain on the lookout and, via Christie’s Ventures, we are invested in leading the convergence of Art and Technology. We accept cryptocurrency payments as and when our consignors are willing to accept it.

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What strategies does Christie’s employ to engage new and younger collectors (under 35) and in what ways are younger generations influencing collectible trends globally?

Christie’s is actively engaging Millennials and Gen Z, who now account for 41% of bidders in luxury categories. Within these sectors, they tend to prioritise contemporary art, with a strong regional preference for collectibles in Asia. Our initiatives to reach this demographic include dynamic online platforms, innovative and targeted campaigns, and exhibitions tailored to their preferences.

Diego Giacometti (1902-1985) · Console ‘Promenade des Amis’, variante, vers 1976, Design Paris 03 December 2024 EUR 9,480,000 · © 2025 Artist Rights Society (ARS), New York/ADAGP, Paris; 2024 Christie’s Images Ltd.; photographer Guillaume Onimus

How do you see the intersection of art, collectibles, and alternative investments (incl. fractional investment/ownership) evolving over the next decade?

Fractional ownership is certainly an exciting development, although Christie’s maintains a cautious approach, with our primary duty being to focus on the quality of the property and our pricing recommendations. While we welcome the buying interest of our clients in fractional ownership, we believe that our own resources are best dedicated to pricing and facilitating an effective market. We are more interested in the development of art financing, with Christie’s providing loans against clients’ collections, providing liquidity while retaining ownership.

What future trends in the art market should wealth managers be aware of to better advise their clients?

Christie’s never makes explicit recommendations about art as an investment. However, as a USD 2 trillion-plus asset class, that is uncorrelated to other markets, we, like many wealth managers, believe it deserves a place in a client’s portfolio. I believe there are three key points that wealth managers should consider:

1. Diversification: including art, jewellery or watches in portfolios can enhance risk management for their clients.
2. Client satisfaction: emphasise the enjoyment of owning art rather than viewing it solely as an investment. Art markets are less liquid and inherently unpredictable, so a purely financial approach is risky.
3. Guarantees: encourage clients who are interested in financially driven purchases to explore auction guarantee schemes. That is an opportunity to acquire a painting or an object at a potentially reduced price or, alternatively, to earn a financing fee.